The Hydrogen Mirage or Machine?

Green hydrogen has moved in thirty months from the margins of Indian energy policy to its centre: the National Green Hydrogen Mission committed ₹19,744 crore in January 2023, and the SIGHT scheme (₹17,490 crore — about ₹4,440 crore for electrolyser manufacturing and ~₹13,050 crore for production) targets 5 MMT of green hydrogen and 60 GW of electrolysers by 2030. This strategic-intelligence report argues India has built its policy around the molecule but not the machine. Green hydrogen is a molecule; the electrolyser is the machine that makes it — and the machine depends on catalysts (iridium and platinum, of which India produces zero), PFSA membranes (IP held by three Western firms), and critical materials India barely processes. India’s effective electrolyser output is under 1 GW against China’s ~45 GW, and China holds ~60% of global manufacturing capacity. Across eighteen chapters the report maps the six supply-side vulnerabilities, the LCOH economics, the SIGHT programme, demand across refining/steel/fertiliser, the strategic control points, and three 2035 scenarios — Mirage, Muddle or Machine — with the base case (Muddle) missing the 5 MMT target by ~30%. Fifty-plus data tables, ~24 figures, and a companion data workbook.