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IAF Autonomous Air Power Roadmap 2026–2035

Report

India enters 2026–2035 with an assessed Air Autonomy Readiness Index of 34/100 — less than half the USAF benchmark of 88 — and the gap is concentrated in the AI software stack (-56 vs USAF) rather than aircraft. This strategic-intelligence assessment argues that the decade's defining task is the industrial substrate beneath autonomous air power: four critical-risk dependencies — semiconductors, AI compute, jet engines and carbon fibre — each scored 20/25 on the Strategic Dependency Matrix, none fully mitigable before 2030. The cost-exchange ratio has flipped nearly three orders of magnitude (1.5:1 in 1990 to a projected ~750:1 for autonomous swarms vs exquisite SAMs by 2035), making exquisite-heavy air defence structurally unaffordable against autonomous mass. If India holds the intervention path, the report models AARI 58–62 by 2035 (42–46 under no intervention); a 31-squadron IAF in MUM-T configuration delivers the combat mass of a 60+ squadron legacy force. The IOSM ranks 75 opportunity surfaces; recommendation R2 proposes a $5B/10-year Autonomous Aerospace Fund. Twelve chapters, six appendices, six proprietary frameworks.

Defence & Dual-Useindia autonomous air powerIAF unmanned combat aerial vehicleindia UCAV roadmapCATS Warrior indiaair autonomy readiness indexindia AI software defenseindia jet engine dependencyautonomous air defence indiaIAF 2035 roadmap
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